How to Assess Political Risk?

The Importance of Theory


   1. The number and nature of variables, their combinations, and the weights assigned to them by the model builders are the result of a theory held by model builders.

   2. Every analysis and assessment that is derived from those variables are therefore dependent on an underlying theory about the causes of politically sourced losses.

   3. Theories lead to variation because of different views of "nature of government" variable, important since the 1960s. Also, definition of "stability" less clear over the years, as it has become obvious that the impact of stability is very context dependent. Does instability of an authoritarian government have the same impact as instability of a democratic government?


Two analyses:


   1. The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) model for forecasting financial, economic, and political risk, created in 1980. Focuses on three subcategories of risk: political, financial, and economic. Separate index is created for each of the subcategories.

   2. The Political Risk Services (PRS) provides a series of risk ratings in Country Reports, each of about 70 pages. Underlying these risk ratings is the Prince Model.